Intuitive fallacies

What you think you know—but don’t really know—can hurt you. If you’re a lawyer, what judges or juries think they know but don’t know can hurt your client. In Using Research Into Intuitive Fallacies to Guide Advocacy, John J. Bursch explores the psychology of mistakes and suggests ways to persuade by overcoming those mistakes. He leads with a discussion of the “Monty Hall Paradox”:

You are a contestant on a game show with three doors. Behind one door is $10,000 cash; behind the other two are goats. The host asks you to choose the door you want, and you select door number one. The host opens door number three, revealing a goat, and then gives you the opportunity to keep what's behind door number one or switch to door number two. What do you do? (Stop and think about this problem for a moment before continuing.)

For the answer to the problem, read John’s article. (If you’re not convinced by the answer, play this game, and remember to keep score.)