Minor Wisdom

The Monty Hall paradox

Imagine that you’re on a game show like Let’s Make a Deal. The host, Monty Hall, presents you with three doors. Behind one is a new car; behind the other two are goats. You choose door # 1. Monty then opens door # 3, behind which is a goat. Monty then offers you the chance to switch your choice to door # 2. Should you switch, or should you stick with door # 1?

Most people answer that it doesn’t make a difference, thinking that the odds are 50:50 that the new car is behind either remaining door. That’s the wrong answer. There is a 1/3 chance that the new car is behind the door you originally chose and a 2/3 chance that it’s behind the remaining door you didn’t originally choose. If you switch, you double your chances of winning the new car.

If you don’t believe this, you can read one of the logical or mathematical explanations of what’s called the Monty Hall paradox (for example, this one or this one). But even then, you probably won’t be convinced until you run your own experiment—which brings us to the point of this post. Click here or here, and play the game several times sticking with your original choice, then several times switching. Keep score. You should find that by switching, you win twice as often.

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p.s. 8/26/07: Hat tip to John Bursch.

Two reasons to listen to Sonny Landreth

Pedal to the Metal:

and World Away:

Any questions?

Dr. Pat

Patrick S. Hambrick
Patrick S. Hambrick, DDS, age 58, died Saturday, July 7, 2007. Dr. Hambrick was a resident of New Orleans for the past 30 years. He was a graduate of LSU Medical Center where he earned a DDS in May 1981. Dr. Hambrick is survived by his beloved wife Marise Hambrick, his parents, Maryan and George Hambrick, his two children, Julie H. Bates and Patrick J. Hambrick, and a granddaughter, Adeline Bates. He is also survived by his sister Susan Jones and brother Mike Hambrick. He was an avid competitive runner known to other runners as “Dr. Pat” with many trophies attesting to his prowess. Among other competitions, he ran in the Crescent City Classic 27 years, always in the top of the standings. “Doc” leaves a host of friends who will remember him for his tremendous generosity and zest for life. He was greatly loved and will be greatly missed.

Published in The Times-Picayune on 7/14/2007.

Our other senator

While one of Louisiana’s senators has been disgracing himself, the other has been hard at work, pulling an all-nighter on the Senate floor, fighting for what she (and many of her constituents) believe in. In short: doing what a senator is supposed to do. (Hat tip to Suspect Device.)

So much for compassionate conservatism

The N.Y. Times reports:

Bush Is Prepared to Veto Bill to Expand Child Insurance

WASHINGTON, July 14 — The White House said on Saturday that President Bush would veto a bipartisan plan to expand the Children’s Health Insurance Program, drafted over the last six months by senior members of the Senate Finance Committee.

The vow puts Mr. Bush at odds with the Democratic majority in Congress, with a substantial number of Republican lawmakers and with many governors of both parties, who want to expand the popular program to cover some of the nation’s eight million uninsured children....

Hat tips to Mirror of Justice and Suspect Device.

New Orleans’ diaspora

The New York Times has a heart-breaking story about the working poor who don’t have the means to return to New Orleans.¹ As the story relates, FEMA has located many of them in rural areas, miles and miles from any potential employment — not good when you don’t own a car.

To those of us who have managed to return: let’s not forget these people, our neighbors who, for now, can’t come home. Let’s pray for the changes that will make their homecoming possible, and let’s agitate to make them happen.

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¹Hat tip to God’s Politics.

If you value the Constitution ...

Keith Olbermann says it much better than I can. Please read the transcript or watch the video.

p.s. Today the judge in the Scooter Libby case upheld GWB’s action — reluctantly. The decision is here; Lyle Denniston’s analysis is here.

Weird dream

We’ve all had weird dreams. I had a really weird one the other night. It may have been (prescription) drug-induced. I had hurt my back over the weekend, so in addition to my usual regimen, I took a pain pill and a muscle relaxer, and chased them with a generous helping of Dewars. Yes, I know it’s a bad idea to mix alcohol with those kinds of meds, but I figured I wasn’€™t going to be driving anywhere.

Anyway, getting back to the weird dream: it was a clash of TV shows. Clinton and Stacy from TLC’s What Not to Wear did one of their fashion interventions on A&E’€™s Dog the Bounty Hunter and his platinum-haired wife, Beth. In the dream, Beth was hostile to the idea of a fashion makeover. Dog, on the other hand, was receptive to the idea of clothes that would complement his personality while giving him a more updated and professional look—€”for instance, a black leather blazer.

Unfortunately, I woke up before Nick Arrojo got his hands on Dog’s and Beth’s hair. Whatever he might have come up with for Dog, I’m sure he would have saved Dog a fortune in hair gel.

Pilots and ushers

Matthew Stibbe reports that an airline in his neighborhood no longer calls a pilot a pilot. From now on, a pilot is a “flight service professional.”

At my church, an usher is not an usher, but a “hospitality minister.” If Edgar Allan Poe had been a parishioner, he might have written “The Fall of the House of the Hospitality Minister.” Somehow that doesn’t sound very scary.

A vote that really matters

The nice folks at Burger King want to donate $100,000 to worthy causes in New Orleans. They’re letting people vote on which cause gets the money — first prize is $50,000. While many worthy causes are in the running, the worthiest is the Father Harry Tompson Center, which serves the needs of the homeless in New Orleans. If you agree, then please cast your vote for the Harry Tompson Center.

The best thing about this election is that you get to legally vote early and often. Just limit yourself to one vote per day.

A big thank-you to Mirror of Justice for promoting this cause.